Your Prediction is Wrong and You Should Feel Bad1. Vague: The prediction makes a non-specific claim, which can fit any number of events. Likewise, a prediction that does not specifically state dates or places can be made to fit many possibilities. 2.Open ended: The prediction has a long cut-off date (or none) and therefore runs indefinitely. Many of Nostradamus' quatrains are open-ended and have been postdicted over the centuries to fit various contemporary events. 3. Catch-all: The prediction covers more than one possible outcome. For example, the Delphic Oracle's answer as to whether Croesus should attack the Persians: "If you attack you will destroy a mighty empire." Croesus attacked and lost badly, but when he later complained to the Oracle, he was informed that the "mighty empire" referred to was his own. 4. Shotgunning: The prediction is in fact many predictions, designed to cover a range of events and claim credit even if only one of them happens. For example, claiming that a particular date is "unlucky" and then citing many things that might happen. 5. Statistically likely: The prediction makes a claim for something that happens with enough frequency that a high hit rate is virtually assured. 6. Unfalsifiable: The prediction makes a claim that is impossible to verify or falsify. 7. Unavailable until after the fact: The prediction cannot be verified if there is no public record of when it was made. A famous example was the psychic Tamara Rand, who "predicted" that Ronald Reagan was in danger from someone with the initials "J.H.". This prediction was made the day after the assassination attempt. 8. Counting the hits and not the misses: The prediction may be part of a series which follows the laws of probability, but is interpreted in isolation. 9. Allegory: The postdiction resorts to allegorical explanations to turn misses into hits. For example, someone has suffered a "spiritual" death to explain why he is still alive despite a prediction to the contrary. 10. Moving the goalposts: The event is "fixed" to fit the prediction because it differs in some significant way.
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